On the Zambezi River it is the season of “the river is going to either go up, or it is going to go down.” Some will proclaim that the river has an obvious cycle and this year will be a high year because last year was low. Others will say that the smell of the water today means that there is another drought coming. I try not to proclaim or smell anything, and instead just try to look at what has happened, and hope that it provides a clue to what might happen.
That’s why I like to look at the water gauges along the upper Zambezi and hope that they provide a clue as to what’s to come. If we those stations, and thus watch Mother Nature, she will tell us what she is capable of. So next time she plans a flood or a drought, we’ll be a bit more prepared. After all, everything one has ever learned has come from nature.
The quick takeaway (until the next week of data is released) is the Zambezi peaked very early this year (top 5 earliest) and very high (top 10 highest) at Chavuma. This was also the briefest time (1 day) that the river stayed above 5,000 m3/s before falling. If there aren’t further rains in Angola, then this adds up to a peak at the falls around mid to late March that should go down soon thereafter.
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